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Data Details

Blizzard Disaster Risk Assessment Dataset in 2050 Based on the Simulation Model from 2000 to 2020 in Yili Region, Xinjiang, China


CUI Jing1DAI Xiaoai*2,3LIU Yan*4,5
1 College of Earth and Planetary Sciences，Chengdu University of Technology，Chengdu 610059，China2 College of Geography and Planning，Chengdu University of Technology，Chengdu 610059，China3 State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection，Chengdu University of Technology，Chengdu 610059，China4 Institute of Desert Meteorology，China Meteorological Administration，Urumqi 830002，China5 Field Scientific Experiment Base of Akdala Atmospheric Background，China Meteorological Administration，Urumqi 830002，China

DOI:10.3974/geodb.2025.11.07.V1

Published:Nov. 2025

Visitors：264       Data Files Downloaded：0      
Data Downloaded： 无      Citations：

Key Words：

blizzard disaster,Ili region,Random Forest,risk assessment,future scenario

Abstract：

The Yili Region of Xinjiang, located in the inland region of Central Asia, experiences complex and variable climatic conditions. Blizzard disaster is one of the most prevalent natural hazards in this area, posing serious threats to regional ecology, agriculture, animal husbandry, and residents’ livelihoods. Using the Random Forest model, the authors integrated meteorological elements (including air temperature, snow cover, and wind speed) with topographic and geomorphological factors to simulate and evaluate annual blizzard disaster risks for the Yili Region during the historical period (2000-2020) and under the SSP2-4.5 scenario for 2050. Blizzard disaster risk is defined as the probability of significant socioeconomic losses caused by blizzard events within a specific geographic context. All risk values are normalized to the [0, 1] range, with higher values indicating greater risk. The model demonstrates good predictive performance, achieving an average AUC value of 0.7601±0.1088 through five-fold cross-validation. Validated against blizzard disaster records in the Ili region from 2000 to 2020, the dataset shows that the identified high-risk years match years with relatively severe actual disaster losses with both precision and recall rates of 71.4%. The dataset is archived in .tif format, and has a spatial resolution of 500 m with missing values represented as -9999. It consists of 22 data files with data size of 78.5 MB (compressed into one file with 16.8 MB).

Foundation Item：

Ministry of Science and Technology of P. R. China (2022xjkk0602)

Data Citation：

CUI Jing, DAI Xiaoai*, LIU Yan*. Blizzard Disaster Risk Assessment Dataset in 2050 Based on the Simulation Model from 2000 to 2020 in Yili Region, Xinjiang, China[J/DB/OL]. Digital Journal of Global Change Data Repository, 2025. https://doi.org/10.3974/geodb.2025.11.07.V1.

References：


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Data Product:

ID Data Name Data Size Operation
1 Blizzard_Risk_Yili2000-2020&2050.rar 17257.88KB
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